\u010casem jsem tak dosp\u011bl k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee bych si mohl zkusit sv\u00fdch p\u00e1r desetikorun spravovat s\u00e1m. Nakonec kdy\u017e m\u00e1m n\u011bkomu poradit, tak jsem v\u017edycky nejchyt\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed, tak pro\u010d ne sob\u011b. Jenom\u017ee jak a do \u010deho investovat? Vlastn\u011b do \u010dehokoliv \u2013 j\u00e1 se zam\u011b\u0159uju p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na spot\u0159ebn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed a trochu na technologie.\u00a0 A jak? V\u011bt\u0161inou nastupuji po n\u011bjak\u00e9m v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm skoku dol\u016f (ned\u00e1vno jsem zjistil, \u017ee tomu investo\u0159i \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed \u201eBuy The Dips\u201c) a sna\u017e\u00edm se p\u0159ij\u00edt \u010d\u00edm byl zp\u016fsoben\u00fd a jestli to bylo d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 nebo ne… no a v\u011bt\u0161inou zjist\u00edm, \u017ee trh to moc pro\u017e\u00edv\u00e1. \ud83d\ude42 Bav\u00ed m\u011b fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed anal\u00fdza, kterou v z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9 f\u00e1zi (po pro\u010dten\u00ed v\u00fdro\u010dn\u00ed zpr\u00e1v, anal\u00fdz a n\u00e1zor\u016f, spo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed P\/E, P\/BV, mrknut\u00ed na insider transactions, atd.) vytun\u00edm o \u201edata\u201c z Twitteru. Uvedu na p\u0159\u00edkladu \u2013 spole\u010dnosti Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, kter\u00e1 vyr\u00e1b\u00ed k\u00e1vovary Keurig a n\u00e1pln\u011b do nich. Tak\u017ee m\u00edsto toho abych v\u011b\u0161til z k\u00e1vov\u00e9 sedliny jako n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed borci:<\/p>\n Ud\u011bl\u00e1m si n\u011bjak\u00fd z\u00e1kladn\u00ed (fundament\u00e1ln\u00ed, chcete-li) p\u0159ehled o spole\u010dnosti, pro co\u017e je super http:\/\/www.google.com\/finance?q=gmcr<\/a> a \u00a0http:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/q?s=GMCR<\/a> \u00a0kter\u00fd dopln\u00edm o aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed plky (\u201edata\u201c zn\u00ed a\u017e moc sofistikovan\u011b)\u00a0 z\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=keurig<\/a>. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u017ee v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi ji\u017e nehled\u00e1m informace o spole\u010dnosti, ale o produktech spole\u010dnosti – n\u00e1zory z Twitteru na investice m\u011b moc nezaj\u00edmaj\u00ed, jsou tam amat\u00e9\u0159i jako j\u00e1. \ud83d\ude42 Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b pom\u011brn\u011b dob\u0159e se tohle d\u00e1 pou\u017e\u00edt u nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch (FM)CG, h\u016f\u0159 t\u0159eba u t\u011b\u017ea\u0159sk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, ale tak j\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dnou v portfoliu nem\u00e1m. Takhle t\u0159eba vypadal pohled na V\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed chit-chat o produktu GMCR \u2013 k\u00e1vovaru Keurig.<\/p>\n M\u00e1 to h\u00e1\u010dek?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Celou \u0159adu. Zaprv\u00e9 m\u00e9 dosavadn\u00ed \u00fasp\u011bchy mohou b\u00fdt jenom n\u00e1hoda, t\u0159eba se \u0161t\u011bst\u00ed unavilo a sedlo na vola \u2013 fakt nevim… po\u0159\u00e1d je to tak trochu casino, jak \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 m\u016fj obl\u00edbenec Andrej Babi\u0161. Zadruh\u00e9 v\u0161echny ty m\u00e9 \u201er\u00e1dobyanal\u00fdzy\u201c \u017eerou dost \u010dasu, tak\u017ee m\u00e1m doslova v\u017edycky jen p\u00e1r titul\u016f (a to t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 doslova, ur\u010dit\u011b ne v\u00edce ne\u017e p\u011bt), co\u017e v\u0161ichni kdo investuj\u00ed odsuzuj\u00ed jako hazard. Zat\u0159et\u00ed si nev\u011b\u0159\u00edm a d\u00e1v\u00e1m tam jen tolik pen\u011bz, abych nesk\u00e1kal z mostu, kdy\u017e bych o n\u011b p\u0159i\u0161el \u2013 tak\u017ee i kdy\u017e to nakonec v procentech vypad\u00e1 slu\u0161n\u011b, tak milion\u00e1\u0159 je\u0161t\u011b nejsem. Za\u010dtvrt\u00e9 Kalda lep\u00ed rozpo\u010det a chyst\u00e1 od 2014 pom\u011brn\u011b z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bny v dan\u00edch pro akciov\u00e9 obchody, \u010d\u00edm\u017e tahle sranda bude o n\u011bco m\u00e9n\u011b legra\u010dn\u00ed (doposud kdy\u017e \u010dlov\u011bk dr\u017eel \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, tak byly zisky osvobozeny) – atakd\u00e1le… nicm\u00e9n\u011b kdy\u017e se da\u0159\u00ed, vypad\u00e1 to pak n\u011bjak takhle:<\/p>\n \u00dapln\u011b konkr\u00e9tn\u011b jsem tuhle spole\u010dnost kupoval pot\u00e9, co je David Einhorn neskute\u010dn\u011b poblil<\/a> (\u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b opr\u00e1vn\u011bne) a z\u00e1rove\u0148 pot\u00e9, co jejich p\u0159edseda spr\u00e1vn\u00ed rady ud\u011blal takovou lump\u00e1rnu, (kter\u00e9 tedy up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b j\u00e1 osobn\u011b docela rozum\u00edm), popsanou na fool.com<\/a>:<\/p>\n At Green Mountain, the board “recently jettisoned founder and chairman Robert Stiller for violating the company’s own trading policies; a margin call triggered a sale during the restricted earnings period,” Alyce reported. “Apparently Stiller had used his shares as collateral for personal loans that were not of any particularly urgent personal nature, but rather to finance things like a 164-foot yacht and expensive real estate.”<\/em><\/p>\n Co\u017e je p\u0159esn\u011b typ zpr\u00e1vy, u kter\u00e9 si trh m\u016f\u017ee rv\u00e1t vlasy (akcie \u0161ly postupn\u011b dol\u016f skoro o deset procent), ale defakto imho v\u016fbec nen\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1, kdy\u017e jim byznys fr\u010d\u00ed d\u00e1l, vyr\u00e1b\u00ed se, prod\u00e1v\u00e1 se, akor\u00e1t se holt vym\u011bnil jeden \u2013 pravda asi pom\u011brn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd \u2013 pajdul\u00e1k. Zkr\u00e1tka pravdu m\u00e1 Iv\u00e1nek Horn\u00edk\u016f, kdy\u017e \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: jsou v\u011bci kter\u00fd jsou d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd, a pak jsou tak dal\u0161\u00ed v\u011bci, kter\u00fd jsou d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd… a to je to hlavn\u00ed. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" U\u017e jsem tady kdysi psal o sv\u00e9 z\u00e1lib\u011b v akci\u00edch, kter\u00e1 m\u011b dr\u017e\u00ed prakticky od mala. Je\u0161t\u011b coby t\u00fdnej\u017er na gymn\u00e1ziu jsem zru\u0161il prarodi\u010di zalo\u017eenou vkladn\u00ed kn\u00ed\u017eku a (nemaje tehdy je\u0161t\u011b re\u00e1ln\u00e9 alternativy) sv\u011b\u0159il pen\u00edze panu Leng\u00e1lovi, kter\u00e9mu se prvn\u00edch p\u00e1r let (tak n\u011bkdy do 07\u2019) docela slu\u0161n\u011b da\u0159ilo t\u011bch p\u00e1r desetikorun mno\u017eit. Od krizov\u00e9ho […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[21,55,90,121,139,325],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.marosh.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1008"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.marosh.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.marosh.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.marosh.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.marosh.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1008"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/blog.marosh.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1008\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/blog.marosh.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1008"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.marosh.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1008"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/blog.marosh.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1008"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"technicka](\"http:\/\/blog.marosh.cz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/04\/original_11585645.jpg\" "\\"original_11585645\\"")
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